Mapping the Conversion Potential of Agricultural Residue Cellulose into Bioethanol Using National Crop Production Data: A Theoretical Mass Balance Approach

Abstract

Global dependence on fossil fuels drives urgent energy and environmental crises, necessitating sustainable alternatives like second-generation bioethanol from lignocellulosic agricultural residues, which avoids food crop competition. This study maps Indonesia's theoretical maximum bioethanol potential from rice straw, corn residue, and sugarcane bagasse cellulose using 2023 national crop production data from BPS integrated with stoichiometric mass balance calculations assuming 100% hydrolysis (1.11 factor) and fermentation (0.511 factor) efficiency. Results show 86.78 million dry tons of total residue yielding 37.24 million tons theoretical glucose and 19.03 million tons bioethanol, equivalent to 24.12 billion liters annually, with rice straw contributing over 70%; at 50% realistic efficiency, potential reaches 12.06 billion liters. These findings establish a data-driven benchmark for policymakers, highlighting abundant untapped biomass for energy diversification while noting limitations like process inefficiencies and residue sustainability needs.