Statistical Correlation of Seizure Volume of Class I Narcotics (Methamphetamine) and Economic Crime: A Geographic Analysis of the Relationship between BNN Data and BPS Poverty Statistics

Abstract

This research investigates the statistical and spatial correlation between the seizure volume of Class I narcotics—specifically Methamphetamine and the prevalence of economic crimes across 34 Indonesian provinces. By integrating secondary data from the National Narcotic Board (BNN) and the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) for the 2020–2024 period, this study utilizes multiple linear regression to test the "Economic Compulsive Model." The findings reveal a robust positive correlation (r = 0.72; p = 0.004), indicating that high narcotics density significantly predicts surges in property-related offenses such as larceny and fraud. Furthermore, the analysis identifies that poverty and income inequality (Gini Ratio) act as critical moderators, accelerating the "Crime Clock" in maritime logistics hubs and urban centers. The study concludes that effective drug policy may benefit from integrating supply suppression with structural economic empowerment to reduce the linkage between narcotics circulation and regional criminality.